Skills Forecast for next Decade
Overall employment growth in Ireland is forecast to reach just over 3 million persons in 2035, potentially adding an additional 650,000 persons when compared to 2021 levels. Ireland, alongside Luxembourg, is forecast to have the highest annual employment growth rate over the period 2021-2035, at 1.7%, compared to a rate for the EU-27 average of 0.2%.
This report focuses primarily on how these employment forecasts relate to change at occupational level. According to Cedefop, changes at occupational level are a reflection of the employment growth at national level, the strength of the main sectors of employment for these occupations, along with changes occurring at skill level within an occupation (e.g. those impacted by automation).
Along with detailing forecasted growth and replacement demand by occupation, the forecasted educational composition by occupation is also outlined. It is estimated in the forecasts that of the 650,000 additional persons employed by 2035, 515,000 will be those holding high qualifications (i.e. tertiary education), 260,000 will relate to those with medium qualifications (i.e. upper secondary education/FET), while there will be a fall in the numbers employed with low qualifications (i.e. lower secondary education or less) of approximately 125,000 persons.
It should be noted that this educational profile very much depends on the education level of the available labour force, rather than being a signal of the skills requirement for these roles. Those with lower levels of educational attainment tend to be in the older age cohorts2 and as they exit the labour market over the forecast period, they are likely to be replaced by those with higher levels of educational attainment. As some occupations evolve with technological advancement, higher levels of skills attainment may be required. However, skills mismatches are already a feature of the Irish labour market3 and there is potential for the level of skills mismatches to further increase resulting in a higher share of persons employed in occupations for which they are over-qualified.
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