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Predicting the Probability of Long-Term Unemployment

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Predicting the ESRIProbability of Long-Term Unemployment


A new ESRI study, commissioned by the Department of Social Protection, updates the statistical profiling model used by the Department to identify those jobseekers at risk of becoming long-term unemployed, the Probability of Exit (PEX) model.

The study found that the eight key characteristics associated with the risk of long-term unemployment in 2018 are:

  1. claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance
  2. not being recently employed
  3. having low levels of educational attainment
  4. poor (self-perceived) health
  5. having a history of long-term unemployment
  6. having previously been on the Community Employment (CE) scheme
  7. not having access to one’s own transport
  8. being older

The study also examines whether the characteristics associated with the risk of long-term unemployment have changed since the PEX model was originally developed in 2006.


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