PEX - Probability of Exit

The Probability of Exit (PEX) model is used by the Department of Social Protection (DSP) to predict a jobseeker’s likelihood of becoming long-term unemployed (LTU) on the day he/she makes their initial benefit claim. When they make their claim, the jobseeker provides a range of information that is then entered into the PEX (statistical) model to produce an individual score of that person’s likelihood of becoming LTU. Depending on what the person’s PEX score is, he/she will receive appropriate interventions to assist them to reintegrate back into the labour market, with those most at risk of becoming long-term unemployed (i.e., receiving a low PEX score) receiving more intensive engagement and support.