Non-Progression Rates in Irish Higher Education Institutions
This report examines progression in Irish Higher Education Institutions and follows on from previous (print/pdf) reports on progression in Higher Education . The purpose of this report is to identify the overall rate of non-progression of students from their first year into the following academic year and more particularly, to enable identification of particular cohorts of students with a high risk of non-progression.
Key Points:
Non-progression rates are trending slowly downwards overall, from 16% (2010/11 entrants) to 12% (2018/19 entrants). The non-progression rate of new entrants in 2019/20 was 9%.
While the overall non-progression rate improved in 2019/20, the non-progression rates for new entrants at Level 6 and 7 is at least double that for entrants to Level 8 courses (16% and 18% at Levels 6 and 7 respectively, compared to 8% at Level 8).
As in recent years, the highest overall non-progression rate was in the Services field of study (16% for 2019/20 entrants), closely followed by ICT (15%) and Engineering, Manufacturing & Construction (13%). The field of study with the lowest rate continues to be Education (3%).
Males have a higher non-progression rate than females, particularly at L6 and L7. In 2018/19 the non-progression rates were 26 and 27% respectively for males, 18% each for females. The gap was narrower at Level 8, at 8% for females and 11% for males. This pattern has continued in 2019/20, with overall rates for males at 11% but at 7% for females.
Mature entrants have a higher non-progression rate than non-mature entrants at Level 8; however, mature entrants have a lower rate of non-progression at Level 6 while there was no difference between the two age groupings at Level 7 (2019/20 entrants).
Students entering Level 8 courses through the DARE and HEAR schemes have slightly better non-progression rates than the overall average for Level 8 entrants. However, students entering from other “non-traditional” routes (i.e., not on the basis of Leaving Certificate points) have in general higher than average non-progression rates across all NFQ levels.
Where data is available, a very strong association between Leaving Certificate points at entry and non-progression rates is evidenced. Entrants with lower Leaving Certificate points have much higher-than-average non-progression rates, particularly at Levels 6 and 7. By contrast, students entering Level 8 courses with high points have the lowest non-progression rates, between 4 and 7% (2018/19 entrants) and as low as 3% (2019/20 entrants).
Variation in headline non-progression rates across HEIs can be seen before controls are applied. Comparing like-for-like students however, the difference in non-progression rates by HEI is significantly reduced.
Leaving Certificate Points are an important predictor of non-progression rates. Despite comparing like-for-like students, those with less than 200 points have a predicted non-progression rate of 25%, compared to just 4% for those with over 500 points.
Students from disadvantaged backgrounds are more likely to not progress than affluent students. However, after controlling for Leaving Certificate Points, no clear relationship exists between Deprivation Index Scores and non-progression rates.
Disparities in non-progression rates exist across gender and Leaving Certificate Points. For example, the gap in in non-progression rates between males and females with 200 Leaving Certificate Points is 11 percentage points, despite comparing like-for-like students. This gap diminishes for students with higher Leaving Certificate Points.
