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Predicting the Probability of Long-Term Unemployment

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Predicting the ESRIProbability of Long-Term Unemployment

 

A new ESRI study, commissioned by the Department of Social Protection, updates the statistical profiling model used by the Department to identify those jobseekers at risk of becoming long-term unemployed, the Probability of Exit (PEX) model.

The study found that the eight key characteristics associated with the risk of long-term unemployment in 2018 are:

  1. claiming Jobseekerโ€™s Allowance
  2. not being recently employed
  3. having low levels of educational attainment
  4. poor (self-perceived) health
  5. having a history of long-term unemployment
  6. having previously been on the Community Employment (CE) scheme
  7. not having access to oneโ€™s own transport
  8. being older

The study also examines whether the characteristics associated with the risk of long-term unemployment have changed since the PEX model was originally developed in 2006.

Employment

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